Fed Chair Jay Powell will be in the hot seat this afternoon following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing an end to the “transitory era” that some are dubbing as one of the worst Fed inflation calls of all time. Currently, markets are pricing in seven rate hikes this year, which would average a 25 basis point hike for each meeting remaining in 2022, though Powell has emphasized that policymakers are
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Import/Export Prices
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly jumped last week, the API reported Tuesday, adding further pressure on oil prices following two-straight days of selling as investors reined in expectations of prolonged supply disruptions related to the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Early back n fill lead to ES staging a strong rally, closing higher by 1.75%, fulfilling upside Cycle Projection (4253). Range was 134 handles on 1.402M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Cycle Projection (4253) has been fulfilled during the previous session. Today is FOMC at 2 pm ET, so we’ll mark this session as a “wild-card” given FED & OPEX flows combination which could have a dramatic impact on market action. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 4250, initially targets 4290 – 4300 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 4250, initially targets 4225 – 4220 zone.
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 3 (CD3)
PVA High Edge = 4244 PVA Low Edge = 4175 Prior POC = 4218
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4354; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4199; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4249; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4253; 10 Day Average True Range 115; VIX: 28
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is extending previous session’s rally during overnight activity surpassing CD3 upper Penetration Zone (13593 – 13645). Prior range was 544 handles on 483k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13575, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13645 – 13675 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13575, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13525 – 13500 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13486 PVA Low Edge = 13176 Prior POC = 13314
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13903; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13233; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13315; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13400; 10 Day Average True Range: 486; VIX: 28
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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