8:00 Jerome Powell Speech
10:00 New Home Sales
11:30 Results of $22B, 2-Year FRN Auction
11:45 Fed’s Daly Speech
1:00 PM Results of $16B, 20-Year Note Auction
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
U.S. crude stockpiles dropped sharply last week, snapping two-weeks of gains at a time when fears of a supply shortage are receding amid fading bets on the European Union joining the U.S. oil embargo against Russia.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels for the week ended March. 17. That compared with a build of 3.8 million barrels reported by the API for the previous week. Economists were expecting a build of about 25,000 barrels
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price did produce a decline, albeit a shallow one. Then this cycle’s rally started, fulfilling 4502 Penetration Target. Range was 82 handles on 1.171M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Part of this cycle’s rally is in-place, though there is additional upside to fulfill the 4542 objective. Typically CD2 we would be looking for some consolidation/balancing price action, as the prior session appeared to be “short-covering”, with a classic P-Shaped Profile. Prominent 4500 Strike Price will need some “work-around.” As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 4500, initially targets 4515 – 4525 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 4500, initially targets 4485 – 4480 zone.
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
PVA High Edge = 4507 PVA Low Edge = 4488 Prior POC = 4500
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4585; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4410; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4453; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4542; 10 Day Average True Range 104; VIX: 24
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is pulling back during overnight activity, following a short-covering session. Being a CD2, expectation is for normal consolidation/balancing of recent rally. Prior range was 397 handles on 501k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 14620, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14655 – 14675 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 14620, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14545 – 14515 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14685 PVA Low Edge = 14515 Prior POC = 14619
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14992; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14214; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14688; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14973; 10 Day Average True Range: 463; VIX: 24
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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