Trade Strategy 3.28.18

Markets
 
Equity markets are wobbly once again amid a tech shakeout, but investors today will also be focusing on the U.S. economy and GDP data. The third estimate for the fourth-quarter is expected to show output growing at a 2.7% annualized rate instead of the 2.5% pace reported last month. The Commerce Department will further publish its advance estimates for February goods trade deficit, retail and wholesale inventories, which could have an impact on Q1 GDP forecasts.
 
In Asia, Japan -1.3%. Hong Kong -2.5%. China -1.4%. India -0.6%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -1%. Frankfurt -1%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -0.9% to $64.63. Gold +0.2% to $1344. Bitcoin +3.2% to $8037. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.75%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 GDP Q4
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Corporate profits
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $15B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
3:00 PM Farm Prices

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Markets are attempting to stabilize following prior session sell-down. Price will need to hold above PC (2612.75) for a recovery rally targeting 2645 handle. Violation and conversion of PL (2596.00) opens trap-door targeting 2578 handle.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2627 handle, THEN upside measures 2637 – 41 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2600, THEN downside measures 2590, followed by 2582 handle.

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2655.75; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2558.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2586.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2627.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2670.50; 10 Day Average True Range 55.66; VIX: 22.17

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Markets are attempting to stabilize following prior session sell-down. Price will need to hold above PC (6552.25) for a recovery rally targeting 6611 handle. Violation and conversion of PL (6490) opens trap-door targeting 6456.25 handle.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 6582 handle, THEN upside measures 6600 – 6611 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 6500, THEN downside measures 6456.25.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6672.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6394.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6519.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6640.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6677.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 187.25; VIX: 22.17

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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