Trade Strategy 3.30.20

Markets

It’s the first Monday in nearly a month that S&P 500 futures haven’t gone limit-down in reaction to alarming weekend news, though traders are still starting the week with caution.

Market drowns in crude

Traders are now betting on production shutdowns to cope with the collapse in demand, triggering WTI crude prices to drop under $20/bbl overnight to levels not seen since 2002. A price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has only compounded price problems with growing lock down measures from the coronavirus pandemic.

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Source: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-cfds

Economic Calendar

10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Friday’s Session was Cycle Day 1…Normal expectation for CD1 is a decline from the Cycle Day 3 High. Price fulfilled Average Decline Objective of 2526.25 and established Cycle low at 2505.25.

Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into today’s Cycle Day 2…During GLOBEX Session price violated CD1 Low (2505.25) finding initial buy response within the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone between 2455 – 2465. Overnight rally found initial resistance at P-VAH (2560) and currently trading near P-POC 2537.

Normal for CD2 would be to anticipate some “back n fill” consolidation trade holding above CD1 Low (2505.25). More bullish price action would be to clear & convert P-VAH. CD2 Range Target measures 2586 handle.

P – VA High = 2560       P – VA Low = 232520         P – POC = 2537

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 2530, THEN initial upside estimate targets 2560 – 2586 zone

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 2530, THEN initial downside estimate targets 2505 – 2490 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2612.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2400.00 3 Day Central Pivot: 2525.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2592.00; 10 Day Average True Range 166.00; VIX: 64

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has reversed the CD1 Violation and is currently trading near 3 Day Central Pivot (7633). Initial trade zone is marked between 7500 – 7650.

P – VA High = 7696       P – VA Low = 7592         P – POC = 7628

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 7600, THEN initial upside estimate targets 7650 – 7700 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 7600, THEN initial downside estimate targets 7550 – 7500 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7734.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7321.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7633.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7824.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 465; VIX: 64

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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