Markets (Top Stories)
The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has surged into a new bull market for the first time in nearly three years, with the tech-heavy benchmark now up more than 20% from its closing low on Dec. 28.
Another bull is awakening from its 2022 slumber as investors continue to pile back into tech stocks that have been shunned for much of the past year. It’s an interesting turn for the market, with worries over interest rates and a looming recession, but perhaps that is what is getting cash off the sidelines. Rates will soon peak – as telegraphed by the Fed’s dot plot – or easing may even ensue, while a lower growth environment can see a premium return to the old beloved tech names. Many are also nervous about missing out on the market ride-up, especially when weighing alternatives like high-yielding money market funds and inflation-linked bonds.
Economic Calendar
8:30 GDP Q4
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Corporate profits
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
12:45 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): True Gap higher held bid throughout the session as price closed on highs of the day, fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Objectives. Prior range was 55 handles on 1.326M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4000. Overnight trade activity has price expanding the current rally, fulfilling CD1 Penetration Level (4084). The next BIG Target is the JPM Collar strike at 4095 (SPX – 4065). Quarter End “mark-up” sequence is also in-play. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4070, initially targets 4085 – 4095 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4070, initially targets 4055 – 4050 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4050 PVA Low Edge = 4033 Prior POC 4041
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4119; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4017; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4020; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4138; 10 Day Average True Range 74; VIX: 19
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): True Gap higher held bid throughout the session as price closed on highs of the day, fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Objectives. Prior range was 252 handles on 556k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 12761. Overnight trade activity has price expanding the current rally fulfilling CD1 Penetration Level (13033). The next BIG Event is the JPM Collar strike at 4095 (SPX – 4065). Quarter End “mark-up” sequence is also in-play. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12995, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13030– 13040 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12995, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12960 – 12930 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12950 PVA Low Edge = 12858 Prior POC = 12908
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13204; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12767; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12830; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13326; 10 Day Average True Range: 272; VIX: 19
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN