Futures linked to the major indices are around 0.5% higher this morning after closing out their worst quarter in two years. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 4.6% and 4.9% during Q1, while the Nasdaq slumped more than 9%.
The second quarter is kicking off with the closely-watched jobs report and strong figures could give the Fed more impetus to continue on a rate hike cycle that it hopes will cool inflation. Non-farm payrolls are expected to show 490,000 jobs were added in March, following a 678,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.7% from 3.8%, while wages are forecast to rise 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y (from 0.0% and 5.1%).
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): End of Quarter selling marked this session with a Market on Close (MOC) Sell Imbalance of $10 Billion. Range was 88 handles on 1.521M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): First day of the 2nd Quarter has price trading below CD1 Low (4574.75). Cycle odds favor recovery of this level, although failure to do so would negate a positive cycle. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 4550, initially targets 4570 – 4575 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 4550, initially targets 4535 – 4530 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4606 PVA Low Edge = 4548 Prior POC = 4579
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…End of Quarter selling marked the previous session’s activity. Today, price is currently below CD1 Low (15012.25) which expectation of recovering this level. Prior range was 325 handles on 549k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 14915, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14965 – 15015 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 14915, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14885 – 14855 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15079 PVA Low Edge = 14968 Prior POC = 15000
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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