The market is expecting Q2 to be the show-me quarter for economic data, where the numbers confirm the substantial economic progress baked into the run-up for the S&P to record levels.
The Labor Department will release the March consumer price index at 8:30 AM ET, with a big rise expected in the annual headline number. Economists expect the CPI to rise 0.5% for the month, with the core CPI, ex food and energy, up 0.2%, both 0.1 percentage point higher than February. Year over year, the CPI is forecast to be 2.5%, up from 1.7%, with the core rate at 1.5%, up from 1.3%.
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
Fed speakers have also been at pains to remind the market of its new policy to let inflation run hot for a time to balance persistent inflation below its 2% target.
12:00 PM Fed’s Daly: “Racism and the Economy: Focus on the Economics Profession”
12:00 PM Fed’s George: “Racism and the Economy: Focus on the Economics Profession”
12:00 PM Fed’s Harker Speech
12:00 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
1:00 PM Results of $24B,10-Year Note Auction
3:00 PM Fed’s Bostic: “Racism and the Economy: Focus on the Economics Profession”
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 as price consolidated throughout the session within value zone. Prior range was a meager 20 handles on 1.044M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle Statistic has been fulfilled as price is back trading within prior value area. We’ll mark today as a “wild-card”. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4110, initially targets 4120 – 4125 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4110, initially targets 4100 – 4095 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4118 PVA Low Edge = 4110 Prior POC = 4114
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4132; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4095; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4105; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4115; 10 Day Average True Range 31; VIX: 17
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Statistic and is currently trading back within prior value zone during overnight trade. Prior range was a meager 100 handles on 448k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13810 PVA Low Edge = 13776 Prior POC = 13784
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13785, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13814 – 13826 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13785, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13767 – 13752 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13956; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13650; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13767; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14011; 10 Day Average True Range: 184; VIX: 17
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN