The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U.S recession over the next two years, with the labor market a particular problem for the Federal Reserve.
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price ended the holiday shortened week on a sour note, closing near lows. Wide range volatility is the recent hallmark of daily trading as investors/traders filter the ongoing dynamics of the economic-geopolitical environment. Expectation is for continued elevated volatility. Prior range was 71 handles on 1.325M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4351.50. We’ll be looking for price stabilization given the recent weakness. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4385, initially targets 4400 – 4415 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4385, initially targets 4355 – 4350 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4428 PVA Low Edge = 4385 Prior POC = 4386
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4426; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4319; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4415; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4472; 10 Day Average True Range; 71; VIX: 24
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 13803 for this cycle day. Price is beginning this new cycle below previous week’s low having fulfilled average decline. Bulls will need to squelch the selling and stabilize the negative momentum in order for this cycle’s next rally to unfold. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13875, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13985 – 14065 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13875, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13803– 13760 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14115 PVA Low Edge = 13877 Prior POC = 13984
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14100; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13533; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14065; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14260; 10 Day Average True Range: 370; VIX: 24
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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