Trade Strategy 4.22.22

Markets

From open to close, the S&P 500 Index (CASH: SPX) (ETF: SPY) (FUTURE: /ES) ended lower 95.38 (2.12%). (spotgamma)

The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “blessed a half-point interest-rate hike next month and signaled support for further aggressive tightening to curb inflation by noting that he saw merit in ‘front-end loading’ policy moves,” per Bloomberg.

Economic Calendar

9:45 PMI Composite Flash
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Early strength  tested CD1 Penetration Levels at which time failed to hold bid and reversed. Selling accelerated throughout the day closing in lower quartile of 129 handle range. Prior range was 129 handles on 1.650M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for a Cycle Day 2 is for some ‘back n fill’ consolidation activity to balance previous selling. CD1 Low is marked at 4380, so price stabilization is necessary near this level. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4380, initially targets 4400 – 4410 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4380, initially targets 4370 – 4365 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4477       PVA Low Edge = 4380         Prior POC = 4390

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4438; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4316; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4438; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4417; 10 Day Average True Range  76; VIX: 23

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Given the sharp sell-off in prior session, today we’ll be looking for a CD2 “normal” for price to stabilize near CD1 Low (13668). Prior range was 616 handles on 678k contracts traded.  As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13668, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13765 – 13780 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13668, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13620 – 13590 zone.

PVA High Edge = 14109       PVA Low Edge = 13680     Prior POC = 13718

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 13998; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13374; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14018; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14226; 10 Day Average True Range: 385; VIX: 23

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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