Markets (Review)
The benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) closed out a tough five trading days on Friday with its worst weekly performance in over a year. The decline saw the index slip below the key 5,000-point level for the first time since late February.
This week’s retreat was driven by stronger-than-anticipated economic data, which, coupled with hawkish Fedspeak, led market participants to dial back their interest rate cut expectations as they realized that the central bank is in no rush to ease monetary policy.
Furthermore, geopolitical concerns over Israel and Iran, along with a stubborn bond sell-off, also put pressure on equities
Source: Seeking Alpha
Economic Calendar
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Price did rally above CD1 Low (5047) to secure a Positive 3 Day Cycle Statistic, albeit a weak cycle indeed. Resistance at 5050 (5-day POC) and OPEX continued to drag price lower throughout the session. Range was 94 handles on 2.261 contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Average Decline for CD1 measures 5001 which has been fulfilled during prior session’s decline, satisfying the target. We’ll reference this level as “key support” on any retest during today’s session. IF there is no further selling below 4990 low, then expectation would be for a rally targeting 5040 – 5050 zone. Average Range for CD1 is 57.50.
As always, our tactical trade plan remains unchanged…Stay in alignment with dominant intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5010, initially targets 5035 – 5040 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5010, initially targets 4990 – 4985 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5036 PVA Low Edge = 4993 Prior POC = 5003
PTG 3 Day Cycle
EXCLUSIVE OFFER
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
Range Projections (ES) June 2024 (M)
- BULL ATR Range Projection >>> 5085
- BEAR ATR Range Projection >>>4943
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Price was not able to rally above CD1 Low (17623), as such it will be marked as a “failed” 3 Day Cycle, which only happens 9% of the time based on 15 years of tracking data. Range was 440 handles on 1.012 contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1: Average Decline for CD1 measures 17262 which has been fulfilled during prior session’s decline, satisfying the target. We’ll reference this level as bulls need to reclaim during today’s session. IF there is no further selling below 17113.25 low, then expectation would be for a rally targeting 17340 – 17400 zone. Average Range for CD1 is 231 handles.
As always, our tactical trade plan remains unchanged…Stay in alignment with dominant intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 17175, initially targets 17340 – 17400 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 17175, initially targets 17125 – 17110 zone.
PVA High Edge = 17389 PVA Low Edge = 17122 Prior POC = 17174
Range Projections (NQ) June 2024 (M)
- BULL ATR Range Projection >>> 17528
- BEAR ATR Range Projection >>> 16923
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN