Trade Strategy 4.25.23

Markets (Top Stories)

Big Week, Big Tech

Prepare for some volatility as investors head into the heart of earnings season, with Big Tech stepping up to the plate this afternoon. Alphabet (GOOGGOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are first in the batting order, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll manage a base hit or if investors will send them back to the dugout following the double-header. Today’s results are not the only ones on deck, with the lineup followed by Meta Platforms (META) tomorrow, and Amazon (AMZN) batting cleanup after the bell on Thursday.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $42B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 unfolded as price successfully tested both upper and lower CD1 range edges, only to settle back to mid value.  Prior range was 30 handles on 1.285M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price continues in range bound structure between defined value 4165 – 4145 zone. Positive Cycle Statistic will be satisfied with price trading above CD1 Low (4135.25) during RTH. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4160, initially targets 4170 – 4175 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4145, initially targets 4135 – 4130 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4162       PVA Low Edge = 4148         Prior POC = 4158

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4170; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4118; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4152; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4182; 10 Day Average True Range  40; VIX: 17

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 unfolded as price successfully tested both upper and lower CD1 range edges, only to settle back to mid value.  Prior range was 166 handles on 573k contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price continues in range bound structure between defined value 13110 – 13005 zone. Positive Cycle Statistic will be satisfied with price trading above CD1 Low (12982.50) during RTH. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13110, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13180– 13200 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13005, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12970 – 12960 zone.

PVA High Edge = 13076       PVA Low Edge = 12998     Prior POC = 13048

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 13157; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12868; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13071; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13171; 10 Day Average True Range: 190; VIX: 17

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

Comments are closed.