8:30 Durable Goods
9:00 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 New Home Sales
1:00 PM Results of $48B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): As opined in prior DTS Briefing 4.25.22 traders were looking for stabilization following prior week’s sell-down. Stabilization did occur, but unfortunately it was a “failed” 3-Day Cycle, not having been able to recover prior CD1 Low (4380). Prior range was 101 handles on 2.225M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4198 which was fulfilled during prior session. Prior session’s afternoon rally has fulfilled initial upside objective (4300 – 4305) zone. Price is currently (pre-RTH) trading off it’s overnight high finding a buy response near CD1 Range Low (4272). Traders will be continuing to explore where the new balance acceptance zone is preferred. Implied Volatility (IV) remains elevated, as the Gamma Guys (GG) anticipate potential move of 1.16% (open/close). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4262, initially targets 4292 – 4302 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4262, initially targets 4235 – 4228 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4250 PVA Low Edge = 4210 Prior POC = 4235
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4356; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4214; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4328; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4305; 10 Day Average True Range; 88; VIX: 27
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 13071 for this cycle day. Price is currently trading in a narrow range pre-RTH. Implied Volatility (IV) remains elevated with an expected potential range of 1.16%. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13420, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13555 – 13595 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13420, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13345– 13292 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13386 PVA Low Edge = 13243 Prior POC = 13262
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13838; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13177; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13592; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13994; 10 Day Average True Range: 406; VIX: 27
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN