Overnight, Dow futures held steady, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 inched up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Tesla (TSLA) reported a record quarterly profit after Monday’s closing bell (see below), while Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) will release their Q1 results today. Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) are scheduled to report tomorrow, followed by Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday, and analysts are already weighing in on the action and what to look for in the days ahead.
FOMC meeting begins
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
11:30 Results of $28B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $62B, 7-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price completed this positive cycle by consolidating near recent ATH. Range was 22.25 handles on lighter volume with 988K contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is a decline measuring an average of 4160 – 4158 zone. As such estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4182, initially targets 4192 – 4196 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4182, initially targets 4174– 4170 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4184 PVA Low Edge = 4176 Prior POC = 4182
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4215; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4154; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4160; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4210; 10 Day Average True Range 38; VIX: 17.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal for this cycle day is a decline with average measuring 13960. Prior range was 174 handles on 50% of average volume with 396k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13996 PVA Low Edge = 13911 Prior POC = 13984
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14017, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14040 – 14068 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14017, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13982 – 13926 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14203; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13855; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13886; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14106; 10 Day Average True Range: 196; VIX: 17.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN