Markets (Top Stories)
Recession talk is all the rage, but the U.S. economy managed to eke out another gain in Q1, with GDP growth expanding by an annualized rate of 1.1%. That severely missed estimates of 2.0% growth and was slower than the 2.6% growth seen in Q4, but investors were excited nonetheless. In fact, the Dow (DJI) and S&P 500 (SP500) on Thursday notched their biggest gains since January, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) scored its best winning session since March.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Employment Cost Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Farm Prices
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Aggressive and persistent buying produced a trend day up, driving price to fulfil and exceed 3-Day Cycle target (4141.75). Prior range was 85 handles on 1.616M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive Cycle is in-place (4141.75). Today is also the End of Month (EOM). We’ll be anticipating an MATD (Market/Morning After Trend Day) to start the day. Finally, we will mark today as a “wild-card” with cycle objectives being met. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4150, initially targets 4190 – 4195 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4150, initially targets 4115 – 4110 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4164 PVA Low Edge = 4109 Prior POC = 4153
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4177; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4110; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4115; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4142; 10 Day Average True Range 45; VIX: 17
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Aggressive and persistent buying produced a trend day up, driving price to fulfil and exceed 3-Day Cycle target (13186.75). Prior range was 397 handles on 714k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive Cycle is in-place (13186.75). Today is also the End of Month (EOM). We’ll be anticipating an MATD (Market/Morning After Trend Day) to start the day. Finally, we will mark today as a “wild-card” with cycle objectives being met. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13215, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13315– 13335 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13215, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13115 – 13095 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13252 PVA Low Edge = 13037 Prior POC = 13235
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13380; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13030; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13016; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13186; 10 Day Average True Range: 205; VIX: 17
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN