S&P 500 is up more than 13% for April, the index’s biggest monthly increase since 1974, while futures extended the gains ahead of today’s session. Optimism was driven by positive results from Gilead’s (NASDAQ:GILD) remdesivir trial, which could help speed recovery from COVID-19, as well as strong earnings from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) that put the Nasdaq Composite on track to erase losses for the year.
The Fed further pledged to use “its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time” and the news was enough to override data showing the U.S. economy had logged its worst quarterly performance since 2009
US Futures Markets are trading “mixed” ahead of the RTH opening bell.
Jobless claims data is set to grow in the millions this morning, with a consensus forecast of 3.5M filings last week to take the total figure over the past six-week period to at least 30M.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Employment Cost Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
3:00 Farm Prices
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price continued this cycle’s rally fulfilling upside objectives as price closes out strong monthly performance.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price has fulfilled Positive Cycle Statistics but has not expanded beyond prior close (2858.50). We’ll mark today as a “wild-card” for direction, as price could “back n fill” to absorb recent gains. Bulls only need to hold recent gains rather than continue to expand the upside.
PVA High Edge = 2945 PVA Low Edge = 2913 Prior POC = 2930
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 2930, THEN initial upside estimate targets 2945 – 2950 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 2930, THEN initial downside estimate targets 2915 – 2910 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2020 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3000; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2890; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2885; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2976; 10 Day Average True Range 73; VIX: 32
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has fulfilled cycle objective (9020) with positive cycle statistic. Currently price is trading below prior close and as such we will mark today as a “wild-card” with anticipation for absorption of recent rally gains.
PVA High Edge = 9014 PVA Low Edge = 8856 Prior POC = 8924
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 9050, THEN initial upside estimate targets 9070 – 9080 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 9050, THEN initial downside estimate targets 9030 – 9020 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2020 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 9316; LOD ATR Range Projection: 8867; 3 Day Central Pivot: 8857; 3 Day Cycle Target: 9020; 10 Day Average True Range: 246; VIX: 32
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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