All FOMC members are in agreement that the Federal Reserve will have to adopt a faster pace in shrinking its balance sheet than it conducted during the 2017-’19 period. “Participants generally agreed that monthly caps of about $60B for Treasury securities and about $35B for agency MBS would likely be appropriate,” per the minutes from March 15-16 gathering. That means the Fed could trim its roughly $9T balance sheet by more than $1T per year, while hiking rates “expeditiously” to fight the hottest inflation since the early 1980s.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:00 Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
2:00 PM Fed’s Evans Speech
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
4:05 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): “Wild-Wednesday” is the only characterization for prior day. Though selling continued during the Morning Session, pushing price to 4450 key support, the Afternoon Session saw at least two 1% swing moves following the FED Minutes release. In the end, those that lost least were the ultimate winners. Risk Management Folks! Prior range was 84 handles on 1.729M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4424. We’ll be looking for KEY SUPPORT (4450) to hold on any test today, as expectation of elevated volatility remains in-place. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4480, initially targets 4500 – 4510 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4480, initially targets 4460 – 4450 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4480 PVA Low Edge = 4458 Prior POC = 4475
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 14368 for this cycle day. Price is attempting to stabilize following a “Wild Wednesday” trading session. Prior range was 467 handles on 775k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14585, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14655 – 14700 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14585, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14495– 14465 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14572 PVA Low Edge = 14430 Prior POC = 14468
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN