While stocks are trying to grab back some gains this morning, the S&P 500 fell even closer to a bear market on Thursday, now down 18.6% from its record closing high set in early January. If things turn around again this session, there is a good chance the benchmark could fall into bear territory for the first time since 2007 (barring the month-long freakout that occurred in March 2020).
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Market’s failed to recover CD1 Low, securing the 9% statistic as price consolidated throughout the session in a Balancing Day. Prior range was 87.50 handles on 2.269M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 3833. Bulls do have a shot to negate the failed cycle with a “grace-day” today as OPEX is expected to be the driver for the session. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3940, initially targets 3962 – 3978 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3940, initially targets 3925 – 3917 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3917 PVA Low Edge = 3886 Prior POC = 3902
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4012; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3835; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3977; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4000; 10 Day Average True Range; 114; VIX: 28
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11966 for this cycle day. Bulls have a possible opening being OPEX to recover CD1 Low (12234). As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12077, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12134 – 12157 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12077, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11990– 11955 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11990 PVA Low Edge = 11855 Prior POC = 11903
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12372; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11619; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12157; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12234; 10 Day Average True Range: 477; VIX: 28
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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