Trade Strategy 6.1.23

Markets (Top Stories)

Deep learning

What goes up must come down… unless you have diamond hands. Some cracks are beginning to appear in the recent AI stock rally, with C3.ai (AI) plunging 22% AH on Wednesday after giving a disappointing outlook during its FQ4 results.

Snapshot: Other AI players and chipmakers also pulled back yesterday following some impressive runups, but the latest movement might suggest that all companies are not equal when it comes to the “AI supercycle.”

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Productivity and Costs
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Fed’s Harker Speech
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Selling continued into this cycle day as price fulfilled the 4175 lower target outlined in prior DTS 5.31.30 briefing. Prior range was 44 handles on 2.040M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Today marks the end of the cycle and beginning of new month. Odds favor recovery back above CD1 Low (4200) to secure a positive 3-day cycle statistic. Once fulfilled, it will be a “wild-card” for direction. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4200, initially targets 4215 – 4220 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4200, initially targets 4185 – 4180 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4203       PVA Low Edge = 4183         Prior POC = 4195

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4234; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4152; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4215; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4272; 10 Day Average True Range  51; VIX: 17

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Selling continued into this cycle day as price fulfilled the lower target 14260. Prior range was 178 handles on 666k contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Today marks the end of the cycle and beginning of new month. Odds favor recovery back above CD1 Low (14336.75) to secure a positive 3-day cycle statistic. Once fulfilled, it will be a “wild-card” for direction. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 14300, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14350– 14360 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 14300, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14260 – 14250 zone.

PVA High Edge = 14355       PVA Low Edge = 14280    Prior POC = 14345

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 14505; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14077; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14390; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14620; 10 Day Average True Range: 256; VIX: 17

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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