The next big test for the markets arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET as the Bureau of Labor Statistics discloses its latest print on U.S. inflation. Traders already got nervous in the previous session, with the Nasdaq plunging nearly 3% and the Dow posting a decline of more than 600 points.
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM Treasury Statement
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets finally broke out of the week-long log-jam trading range late in the session, water falling down to 400 key gamma guys noted target zone. Prior range was 130 handles on 1.722M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4056, which has been fulfilled. Price is currently trading near 4000 Roundie pre-RTH. BIG CPI Report this morning…Lots happening next week with Futures Contract Rollover, VIX/OPEX Expiration’s and FOMC. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4015, initially targets 4025 – 4030 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4015, initially targets 4000 – 3990 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4119 PVA Low Edge = 4073 Prior POC = 4090
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4103; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3934; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4106; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4056; 10 Day Average True Range; 96; VIX: 26
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 12327 for this cycle day. Price is currently trading near this level, so as to be the LIS for today’s session. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12327, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12360 – 12375 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12327, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12270– 12255 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12658 PVA Low Edge = 12503 Prior POC = 12565
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12676; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11979; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12566; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12412; 10 Day Average True Range: 388; VIX: 26
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN