Markets (Top Stories)
By the numbers: The headline CPI is expected to slow to a 0.2% M/M increase in May from its 0.4% advance the previous month. The progress looks even better on a Y/Y basis, with CPI growth expected to moderate to 4.1% from 4.9% growth in April, marking the lowest level in more than two years. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% M/M, unchanged from April’s rate, showing just how sticky inflation can be. On a Y/Y basis, core CPI is anticipated to rise 5.3%, down from 5.5% in April.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Barely a decline unfolded as bullish sentiment controlled this session. With Contract Rollover beginning, price action was relatively quiet until mid-afternoon, when the 0DTE Gang exploded with Put Selling/Call Buying, driving prices sharply higher. Market on Close Buy Imbalance added to the buying euphoria. Be on alert to the “Boyz with the Better Seats” getting aggressive shortly past 2:30 pm EST. Prior range was 42 handles on 1.142M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Primary Three-Day Cycle Target (4390) has been fulfilled. This morning we get the all-important CPI print. Forecasts are noted above in the economic calendar section. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4380, initially targets 4410 – 4415 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4380, initially targets 4365 – 4360 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4368 PVA Low Edge = 4352 Prior POC = 4355
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4431; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4358; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4353; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4392; 10 Day Average True Range 44; VIX: 14
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Barely a decline unfolded as bullish sentiment controlled this session. With Contract Rollover beginning, price action was relatively quiet until mid-afternoon, when the 0DTE Gang exploded with Put Selling/Call Buying, driving prices sharply higher. Market on Close Buy Imbalance added to the buying euphoria. Be on alert to the “Boyz with the Better Seats” getting aggressive shortly past 2:30 pm EST. Prior range was 280 handles on 385k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Primary Three-Day Cycle Target (14990) has been fulfilled. This morning we get the all-important CPI print. Forecasts are noted above in the economic calendar section. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15000, initially targets 15075 – 15080 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15000, initially targets 14950 – 14940 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14885 PVA Low Edge = 14760 Prior POC = 14803
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15227; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14851; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14759; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14990; 10 Day Average True Range: 232; VIX: 14
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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