Trade Strategy 6.17.22

Markets

Another bloodbath rocked Wall Street yesterday as traders fully digested what an aggressive Fed will mean for the markets. The odds of a recession are rising fast with Jay Powell attempting to tackle inflation by reducing demand in a supply-constrained world (and risking labor market gains in the interim). The shakeup saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumble below the key 30,000 level for the first time since January 2021, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged further into bear market territory.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:30 Powell Speaks
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Leading Indicators
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Markets did their best at holding firm while under continued selling pressure as finally an underlying bid absorption created a more normal Cycle Day 2 balanced day. Range was 191 handles on 2.233M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently below CD1 Low (3723) with favorable odds to recover this level to avert a second failed 3-Day Cycle. With contract rollover and the Fed out of the way, the only remaining event is QUAD OPEX today. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 3700, initially targets 3718 – 3727 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 3700, initially targets 3685 – 3770 zone.

PVA High Edge = 3891       PVA Low Edge = 3656        Prior POC = 3670

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3782; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3599; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3753; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3723; 10 Day Average True Range  114; VIX: 32

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading below CD1 Low (11358) with favorable odds of recovering this level to avert a second failed 3 Day Cycle. QUAD OPEX is on deck for today’s activity to close out an event-driven trading week. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11300, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11338 – 11350 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11300, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11355 – 11325 zone.

PVA High Edge = 11290       PVA Low Edge = 11094     Prior POC = 11157

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 11589; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10882; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11440; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11358; 10 Day Average True Range: 427; VIX: 32

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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