Trade Strategy 6.18.25

Posted on by June 18, 2025

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Normal CD2 as price consolidated throughout the session with the 6075 +- Line in the Sand (LIS) held as “key resistance.”

Afternoon weakness pushed price to close near the lows of the day. Contract Rollover volumes are now greater in the September (U) front month.

Mixed volumes, low volatility, narrow ranges made for sparse clean trading opportunities, unless your plan is for scalping. Directional traders found the morning session lean, while the afternoon session offered slightly better opportunities.

Range was 63 handles on 1.141M contracts exchanged.

Here’s a preview for the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting, culminating in the policy decision on Wednesday, June 18 at 2:00 p.m. ET and Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. wsj.com+15cbsnews.com+15forex.com+15

🔍 Key Expectations

1. Rate Decision

2. Dot Plot & Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)

3. Policy Statement Tone

  • Expect “wait‑and‑see” language, highlighting ongoing risks from tariffs, global trade tensions, and Middle East developments wsj.com+15reuters.com+15kiplinger.com+15.

  • The Fed will likely note that inflation remains “somewhat elevated” and labor markets are “solid”, with rising uncertainties that may shift growth and inflation trajectories ey.com.

4. Economic Backdrop

  • Inflation: PCE and CPI readings have eased (around 2.1–2.4%), but rising oil and tariff pressures—especially from the Israel-Iran conflict—pose upside risks .

  • Labor Market: Job gains (~139K in May), low unemployment (~4.2%), though payroll revisions and rising claims hint at softness investors.com+1kiplinger.com+1.

  • Trade / Tariffs: Recent actions have spurred inflation expectations and uncertainty; full effects may hit in H2 2025 .

5. Geopolitical & Political Context

  • Middle East volatility (Israel-Iran) has stirred oil price spikes, complicating inflation containment .

  • Political pressure: President Trump’s calls for aggressive rate cuts—labeling Powell a “numbskull”—continue. The Fed remains firmly committed to independence reuters.com+13investors.com+13nypost.com+13.

🧭 What to Watch on June 18

  1. Dot Plot Revision – especially number/timing of rate cuts.

  2. Fed Statement Tone – shifts toward caution or emphasize risks.

  3. Boilerplate changes – key phrases on inflation and labor.

  4. Powell’s Press Conference:

    • Clarity on tariff and oil impacts.

    • Definition of economic conditions triggering cuts.

    • Reaction to political interference concerns.

📊 Market Impact & Outlook

🔚 Summary

The June FOMC is expected to hold rates steady, maintain cautious language, and downgrade projections on growth while containing inflation forecasts upward. The dot plot and Powell’s press remarks will drive tone on policy expectations. Markets are watching for signals on when the first cut might arrive—likely by September—but near-term bias is toward restraint.

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 6.17.25

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3: Price is currently above the CD1 Low (6000) as of this writing (7pm) and needs to trade above during RTH. This will satisfy the Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic, that has an 90.40% historical performance track record.

Market closed near the LOD and selling momentum appears to be spilling over into the GLOBEX session.

The BIG Event today is of course the FOMC (preview above). Israel / Iran remains the “wild-card” for impactful market response should there be escalation of the conflict. We have it on the PTG Bingo Card, but hope it is not called out to be filled out. Stay vigilant!

 

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6030+-, initially targets 6045 – 6050 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6030+-, initially targets 6015 – 6005 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6068    PVA Low Edge = 6034         Prior POC = 6040

   ESU

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Normal CD2 as price consolidated within the prior Open Range Zone during the Morning Session as noted in the prior DTS Briefing 6.17.25. The Afternoon Session was another story as sellers turned aggressive, pushing price down to close in the lower quartile of the day’s range. Range was 267 points on 400k contracts exchanged. 

 

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3: Price is currently above the CD1 Low (21726) as of this writing (7pm) and needs to trade above during RTH. This will satisfy the Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic, that has an 90.40% historical performance track record.

Market closed near the LOD and selling momentum appears to be spilling over into the GLOBEX session.

The BIG Event today is of course the FOMC (preview above).

 

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 21960+-, initially targets 22050 – 22130 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 21960+-, initially targets 21875 –  21860 zone.

PVA High Edge = 22127     PVA Low Edge = 22017         Prior POC = 22087

NQU 

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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