Markets
As the Fed spreads its dovish wings, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped below 2% overnight for the first time since November 2016. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, dropped the word “patient” from its statement and said it would “act as appropriate” to sustain the economy. The news is also boosting U.S. stock futures pre-market, with the DJIA indicating gains of 228 points at the open and the Fed Funds Futures pointing to a 100% chance of monetary policy easing in July.
Reacting to the downing of a U.S. drone over the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices spiked overnight, with WTI crude soaring 3% to over $55/bbl.
In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong +1.2%. China +2.4%. India +1.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.9%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.9%. S&P +0.9%. Nasdaq +1.2%. Crude +2.9% to $55.52. Gold +2.8% to $1386.60. Bitcoin +1.3% to $9219.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 1.99%
(Source: Seeking Alpha) https://seekingalpha.com/
Economic Calendar
8:30Initial Jobless Claims
8:30Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30Current Account
10:00Leading Indicators
10:30EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PMMoney Supply
4:30 PMFed Balance Sheet
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S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 3 …Cycle Objectives have been fulfilled with Positive 3 Day Rally Statistic. Price continues to rally in overnight trade exceeding CD 3 statistical Penetration Levels and making a run at all-time highs.
CD3 Range High = 2963.00 CD3 Range Low = 2936.00 CD3 Range Avg = 32.50
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2937, THEN upside targets 2956 – 2963 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2937, THEN downside targets 2916 – 2912 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2956.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2935.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2889.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2915.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2927.50; 10 Day Average True Range 25.56; VIX: 13.76
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3…Positive 3 Day Rally is in-place and price continues to rally strongly during overnight trade achieving and exceeding 7793 upper ATR Range Level.
CD3 Range High = 7798.00 CD3 Range Low = 7696.00 CD3 Range Avg = 105.50
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7714, THEN upside potential targets 7793 – 7798 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7714, THEN downside targets 7655 – 7640 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7793.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7702.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7541.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7625.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7661.25; 10 Day Average True Range: 100.38; VIX: 13.76
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN