Following a big day for U.S. equities on Monday, where the Dow took back its lead to close nearly 2% higher, stock index futures are debating their next direction. The wary atmosphere comes before Powell makes his next appearance, this time testifying in front of Congress at 2 p.m. ET. He’s set to reiterate job growth will pick up in the coming months and price pressures should ease, but may invite fresh talk about interest rate hikes or the Fed’s bond-buying program.
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 Existing Home Sales
1:00 PM Results of $60B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): This cycle’s decline occurred on CD3, pushing price to deep lows. CD1 low (4126.75) was established early in the day. When this happens first, odds greatly favor a strong rally during RTH session, as it unfolded yesterday. Range was 93 handles on 1.382M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for some consolidation of recent gains, with an upside skew. 3 Day Cycle Objective has been fulfilled and exceeded. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4220, initially targets 4230 – 4235 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4220, initially targets 4205 – 4197 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4219 PVA Low Edge = 4175 Prior POC = 4213
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4240; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4192; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4190; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4184; 10 Day Average True Range 35; VIX: 17.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is extending cycle rally gains during overnight activity, fulfilling CD2 Penetration Level (14176). Prior range was 186 handles on 497k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14138 PVA Low Edge = 13048 Prior POC = 14116
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14144, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14157 – 14176 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14144, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14123 – 14116 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14230; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14016; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14079; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14157; 10 Day Average True Range: 164; VIX: 17.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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