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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal consolidation as expected for this cycle day. Range was 38 handles on 1.681M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Bearish momentum remains in-place as potential increase for a “failed” 3-day cycle, should price stay below CD1 Low (3821.75). Next “big-event” (today) will be the quarterly rebalance. In addition, the $3600 JPM short put strike (3620) and options expiration removes large put positions, which may expose the market to further downside in July, per the “Gamma Guys” Suffice it to say: downside lean ahead of the long July 4th holiday is the Path of Least Resistance (POLR). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 3800, initially targets 3820 – 3825 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 3800, initially targets 3765 – 3760 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3832 PVA Low Edge = 3815 Prior POC = 3820
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has violated CD1 Low (11661) during overnight trade fulfilling initial lower violation target (11480) increasing potential for “failed” 3-day cycle. End of month and quarter relabance ahead of long July 4th holiday weekend should keep volatility elevated. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11565, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11620 – 11640 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11565, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11480 – 11460 zone.
PVA High Edge = 117080 PVA Low Edge = 11641 Prior POC = 11680
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN6.22.22