Markets (Top Stories)
It’s official! The S&P 500’s (SP500) longest bear market since the 1940s has come to an end. The benchmark index closed up 0.6% to 4,294 on Thursday, vaulting it back into bull territory with a 20% advance from its October low. The rally has been powered, in large part, because of a handful of companies posting outsized gains, like Big Tech, Tesla (TSLA) and AI darling Nvidia (NVDA). There has also been somewhat of a resurgence in economic optimism, compared to the sentiment that plagued the market in 2022.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
10:00 Quarterly Services Survey
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price rallied fulfilling 4300 – 4305 zone objective. Prior range was 40 handles on 1.459M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Cycle Statistic is in-place…As such we’ll mark today as a “wild-card” for direction. Line-in-Sand shifts to 4290 as bulls have control and cannot fumble the ball. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4290, initially targets 4310 – 4315 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4290, initially targets 4275 – 4270 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4300 PVA Low Edge = 4275 Prior POC = 4295
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4332; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4250; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4285; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4310; 10 Day Average True Range 48; VIX: 13
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price rallied fulfilling 14500 – 14520 zone objective. Prior range was 270 handles on 610k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Cycle Statistic is in-place…As such we’ll mark today as a “wild-card” for direction. Line-in-Sand shifts to 14500 as bulls have control and cannot fumble the ball. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 14500, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14575– 14600 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 14500, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14465 – 14460 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14512 PVA Low Edge = 14366 Prior POC = 14486
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14722; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14259; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14480; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14579; 10 Day Average True Range: 262; VIX: 13
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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