Markets
U.S. stock index futures are also joining the global selloff after the major averages posted their first negative week in four: Dow -1.1%; S&P 500 -0.8%; Nasdaq -0.4%.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Gap higher into “key resistance” (4360 – 4365) failed to hold bid and selling pressure steadily increased throughout the day resulting with a close near lows of session. Range was 53.75 handles on 1.504M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): 3-Day Cycle Target (4367) has been fulfilled, but price is currently trading well below CD1 Low (4332.50). Though cycle objectives have been achieved, current weakness serves as an “early warning” signal that traders may want to “re-price” merchandise, given changes in investor sentiment. Estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4280, initially targets 4300 – 4310 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4280, initially targets 4265 – 4250 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4360 PVA Low Edge = 4329 Prior POC = 4342
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4303; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4284; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4350; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4367; 10 Day Average True Range 36; VIX: 21.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price violated PL (14656) and has pushed down fulfilling CD3 Violation Level (14532) during pre-RTH. Prior range was 213 handles on 519k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14812 PVA Low Edge = 14702 Prior POC = 14759
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14580, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14610 – 14625 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14580, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14532 – 14512 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14680; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14526; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14820; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14809; 10 Day Average True Range: 156; VIX: 21.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN