8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Gap opening lower as Trader Vic Gap Rule (TVGR) when into effect. Failed 3 Day Cycle, as this occurs only 9% of the time historically, covering over twelve (12) years of recorded data. Two consecutive cycle failures are even more rare and should this occur, it would sent a message that a potential top is forming. Range was 96.75 handles on 2.542M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4280 which is now acting as initial resistance, on the rally during overnight activity. Volatility Index (VIX) has spiked to 21.50. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4280, initially targets 4290 – 4295 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4280, initially targets 4255 – 4250 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4257 PVA Low Edge = 4227 Prior POC = 4255
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4302; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4232; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4318; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4310; 10 Day Average True Range 47; VIX: 21.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has rallied higher during overnight activity, recovering approximately three-fourth’s of prior session’s decline. Average Decline for CD1 measures 14994. Prior range was 237.50 handles on 708k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14542 PVA Low Edge = 14461 Prior POC = 14482
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14580, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14640 – 14660 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14580, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14540 – 14520 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14754; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14468; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14707; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14826; 10 Day Average True Range: 175; VIX: 21.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN