Trade Strategy 7.23.18

Markets
 
An earnings deluge is on the menu this week. About a third of the S&P 500 companies will report quarterly results, including three FANG stocks – Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGGOOGL)- as well as oil majors Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX). So far, 87% of corporations that have reported earnings have exceeded Wall Street estimates, with FactSet now forecasting Q2 profits will be up 20.8% from a year earlier.
 
In Asia, Japan -1.3%. Hong Kong +0.1%. China +1.%. India +0.6%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.4%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude +1% to $68.96. Gold -0.1% to $1229.90. Bitcoin +3.9% to $7686. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.89%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:00 Existing Home Sales

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently trading lower in overnight trade to begin the week and is below 2808 3 Day Central Pivot. Continued weakness below this level portends a potential deeper downside, threatening the recent rally. Recovery above this level would neutralize this condition. 

Market Bias: Short-term Neutral/Bullish

CD2 Range High = 2815.50          CD2 Range Low = 2783.00         CD2 Range Avg = 27.50

Scenario 1: IF price holds above 2794 handle, THEN recovery rally targets 2803.50, followed by 2808 handle.

Scenario 2: IF price keeps offer below 2803.50, THEN initial downside targets 2794 handle…Violation and conversion of this level opens door to deeper decline targeting 2789 – 2785 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2809.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2789.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2793.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2808.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2822.50; 10 Day Average True Range 16.75; VIX: 13.34

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently trading lower in overnight trade to begin the week and is below 7387.25 3 Day Central Pivot. Continued weakness below this level portends a potential deeper downside, threatening the recent rally. Recovery above this level would neutralize this condition. 

Market Bias: Short-term Neutral/Bullish

CD2 Range High = 7374.25         CD2 Range Low = 7326.00          CD2 Range Avg = 91.50

Scenario 1: IF price holds above 7326 handle, THEN recovery rally targets 7366.00, followed by 7387 handle.

Scenario 2: IF price keeps offer below 7366.00, THEN initial downside targets 7326 handle…Violation and conversion of this level opens door to deeper decline targeting 7308.25 – 7286.00 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7392.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7308.25; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7352.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7387.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7415.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 69.25; VIX: 13.34

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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