Trade Strategy 7.28.21

Markets

Fed policy update

Wall Street snapped a five-session winning streak on Tuesday before a policy decision from the Federal Reserve, though things looked better in the overnight session. Nasdaq futures are ahead by 0.3% following some blowout results from Big Tech, while contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Dow were up 0.2%.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

S&P 500

***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price fulfilled 3 Day Cycle objectives and failed to expand above CD2 high, which attracted sellers, pushing price down to 4364 range low. Range was 51 handles on 1.541M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline Projection Zone (4374 – 4372) was fulfilled during prior CD3 pullback. With the FOMC Meeting (Presser) on tap, anything goes for today’s session, as price is currently within yesterday’s value range. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4394, initially targets 4408 – 4413 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4394, initially targets 4380 – 4377 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)

PVA High Edge = 4400       PVA Low Edge = 4377         Prior POC = 4394

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4422; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4362; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4394; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4414; 10 Day Average True Range  42; VIX: 18.85

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price rebounded during overnight activity from prior session’s decline. Prior range was  357 handles on 664k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 14982       PVA Low Edge = 14803      Prior POC = 14918

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14985, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15025 – 15045 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14985, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14934 – 14918 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15057; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14807; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15025; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15050; 10 Day Average True Range: 191; VIX: 18.85

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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