Get ready for a contentious GDP readout that will be the talk of the markets for the rest of the day (and the coming sessions and weeks ahead). The first estimate of gross domestic product for the second-quarter will be reported at 8:30 a.m. ET, with most forecasts ranging anywhere from a 1% increase to a 1% decline. The stakes couldn’t be higher as annualized growth in Q1 contracted 1.6%, meaning if the U.S. sees another quarter of negative growth it could already be in a recession. Or is it?
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price did produce albeit a shallow decline before the rally began and accelerated post-Fed announcement, surpassing all upside daily levels. Prior range was 104 handles on 1.670M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is to absorb and consolidation recent prior session rally. 4000 strike remains gravitational level with 3950 marked as strong support.As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4015, initially targets 4030 – 4035 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4015, initially targets 4000 – 3995 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4011 PVA Low Edge = 3945 Prior POC = 3981
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for CD2 is for two-way balancing action to absorb prior session’s post-Fed rally. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12562, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12585 – 12605 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12562, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12525– 12500 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12525 PVA Low Edge = 12250 Prior POC = 12434
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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