Three weeks ago, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee made news when it announced its biggest rate hike since 1994, in an effort to show markets that it’s serious about taming inflation. Today, the central bank will release the minutes from the June 14-15 policy meeting, giving investors a window into the FOMC’s decision-making process. The details could provide more clues on how the Fed made its decision to go with the three-quarters of a percentage point increase, triple its standard 25-bps increase, and if it will go for another at the end of July.
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***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Dip buyers were active throughout the day holding the key 3750 support level early in the morning, before pushing price higher into the closing bell, fulfilling 3-day cycle target objectives.. Prior range was 114 handles on 1.816M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measure 3749, which was fulfilled during prior CD3 session. Three-Fourths of this cycle’s rally objective has been fulfilled, again during the prior session, so we will be looking for renewed buyers on any weakness for today’s session. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3830, initially targets 3855 – 3865 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3830, initially targets 3815 – 3800 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3806 PVA Low Edge = 3744 Prior POC = 3756
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Early weakness reversed at support (11400) and rally ensued the remainder of the session. Today is CD1 with Average Decline measuring 1344. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11815, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11875 – 11934 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11815, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11735 – 11700 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11660 PVA Low Edge = 11394 Prior POC = 11495
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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