Today’s Consumer Price Index will provide the first look of inflation data for July, with market participants eager to see if the number topped out last month. Economists expect the figure to rise 8.7% Y/Y, down from the 9.1% clocked in June. Core CPI – which strips out volatile components like food and energy – is still expected to increase 6.1% vs. 5.9%, and that number is set to highly impact whether the Federal Reserve raises rates by 50, 75 or even 100 basis points in September.
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
11:00 Fed’s Evans Speech
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Statement
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 5. That compared with a build of 2.2 million barrels reported by the API for the previous week. Economists were expecting an increase of about 73,000 barrels.
The API data also showed that gasoline inventories fell by 627,000 barrels last week, and distillate stocks increased by 1.4 million barrels.
The official government inventory report due Wednesday is expected to show weekly U.S. crude supplies rose by about 73,000 barrels last week.
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 unfolded as price declined to reach lower target levels outlined in previous DTS 8.9.22. Prior range was 42 handles (below average of 70 ) on 1.238M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Key economic release today is Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast to be 8.7% v 9.1% previous reading. Markets are anticipated to react to this number, so anything can unfold, though normal for CD2 is range consolidation. Mr. Roboto is the final arbiter of price action. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4120, initially targets 4145 – 4150 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4120, initially targets 4105 – 4100 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4130 PVA Low Edge = 4116 Prior POC = 4122
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4184; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4069; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4142; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4155; 10 Day Average True Range 70; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for CD2 is range consolidation, but with CPI release, anything can happen….As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13000, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13120 – 13140 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13000, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12950 – 12925 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13060 PVA Low Edge = 12986 Prior POC = 13050
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13319; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12766; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13188; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13433; 10 Day Average True Range: 337; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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