Markets
Today’s nonfarm payrolls report has slipped to the back burner, but investors are still keeping an eye out for what the figures will mean for interest rates. U.S. job growth likely slowed in July to 164K – after outsized gains of 224K in the prior month – while wages probably maintained their moderate pace of increase, boosting expectations for another Fed rate cut next month. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.7%, marking the lowest jobless rate in nearly 50 years.
In Asia, Japan -2.2%. Hong Kong -2.4%. China -1.4%. India +0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.7%. Paris -2.6%. Frankfurt -2.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.6%. Crude +2.3% to $55.23. Gold +1.1% to $1448. Bitcoin +5.7% to $10492.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -5 bps to 1.84%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
Economic Calendar: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
8:30Non-farm payrolls
8:30International Trade
10:00Factory Orders
10:00Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PMBaker-Hughes Rig Count
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2983.50 (SURPASSED). Average Range for CD1 is 32.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 43%
***Note: Prior session’s late day sell off pushed price down to Cycle Statistical Extremes between 2950 – 2935…Currently where price is trading during overnight pre-RTH. Average True Range (ATR) and Volatility Index VIX have both expanded rapidly past 3 sessions…As such, be sure to adjust expectations and risk parameters.
CD1 Range High = 2957.50 CD1 Range Low = 2928.00 CD1 Range Avg = 32.50
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2960, THEN initial upside targets 2970 – 2980 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2960, THEN initial downside targets 2950 – 2935 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2019 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2968.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2917.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2989.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2973.00; 10 Day Average True Range 34.89; VIX: 18.00
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7901 (SURPASSED). Average Range for CD1 is 127.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 74% Odds of decline > 25 = 66%
***Note: Prior session’s late day sell off pushed price down to Cycle Statistical Extremes between 7765 – 7735…Currently where price is trading during overnight pre-RTH. Average True Range (ATR) and Volatility Index VIX have both expanded rapidly past 3 sessions…As such, be sure to adjust expectations and risk parameters.
CD1 Range High =7856.00 CD1 Range Low = 7685.00 CD1 Range Avg = 127.00
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7790, THEN initial upside targets 7805 – 7825 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7790, THEN initial downside targets 7750 – 7740 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2019 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7863.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7678.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7905.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7875.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 127.00; VIX: 18.00
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN