Markets
The bookies are cuing up the spreads for Jackson Hole, and investors are taking note. The annual economic symposium has increased importance this year given the current macro-driven market, as well as the cohesive swings being seen among asset classes like stocks, bonds and commodities.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Corporate profits
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $37B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive 3-Day Cycle, as price continued to consolidate within expected range parameters between 4110 – 4150 as laid out in prior DTS 8.24.22. Range was 47.75 handles on 1.293M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4272. Markets have a positive bid this morning as Jackson Hole (J-Hole) get underway with Fed Chair Jay Powell (JPOW) is slated to talk on Friday. Expectations vary on market reaction, though currently appears to have a bullish lean. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4160, initially targets 4185 – 4190 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4160, initially targets 4140 – 4135 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4147 PVA Low Edge = 4127 Prior POC = 4140
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4201; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4130; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4247; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4181; 10 Day Average True Range 58; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Today is CD1 with Average Decline measuring 12669. Price is currently trading higher by approximately 1% as bullish lean is the current theme ahead of J-Hole. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13000, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13170 – 13185 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13000, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12950 – 12935 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12963 PVA Low Edge = 12885 Prior POC = 12935
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13175; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12835; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12951; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13235; 10 Day Average True Range: 250; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
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