While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh highs on Tuesday for the third day running, futures were more muted overnight as investors awaited the next steps for monetary policy (Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak tomorrow at Jackson Hole). Contracts tied to the Dow are off by 0.2%, the S&P 500 is unchanged and Nasdaq is ahead by 0.3%.
8:30 Durable Goods
10:00 Fed’s Barkin Speech
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 Results of $22B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $51B, 5-Year Note Auction
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Laura barrels toward Gulf coast More than half a million people have been ordered to evacuate the U.S. Gulf Coast, with Hurricane Laura set to come ashore tonight in Texas and Louisiana as a Category 3 storm.
***We pray for all those folks that will be impacted by Hurricane Laura***
Oil is meanwhile holding at a five-month high of $43 per barrel amid a threat that some of America’s largest oil refineries could be shut for months. The hurricane has already prompted more than 84% of oil output and nearly 61% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico to be taken off-line
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading and for contribution to Mr. TopStep’s Opening Print publication.
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): 3 Day Positive Cycle Statistics were fulfilled as price continued in rally-mode, notching new all-time highs. Price successfully tested prior VAH (3422) early, as initiative buyers took control for the entire session, closing near high of the day. Range was 27 handles, slightly under 10-day average of 31, with 1.1M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Bullish price momentum is firmly in-place with nothing but blue-sky above. Next key Cycle Zone measures 3470 – 3472. We then have two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3448, initially targeting 3458 – 3465 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3448, initially targeting 3438 – 3430 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3436 PVA Low Edge = 3424 Prior POC = 3430
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2020 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
PVA High Edge = 11688 PVA Low Edge = 11613 Prior POC = 11654
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11742, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11797, with extended targets measuring 11835 – 11851 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11742, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11710 – 11688 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2020 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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