We’ve been hearing about it all week, but the moment has finally arrived. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning as he speaks at the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
Stock index futures overnight were up 0.3% after falling back yesterday amid remarks from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish wing.
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
10:00 Jerome Powell Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Textbook CD1 unfolded, as price declined to projected average decline target (4465). Range was 29.25 handles on 1.280M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for some ‘back n fill’ price to absorb recent activity. Overnight CD1 Low (4465) held test and has rallied to 5-day POC (4482). Market participants are waiting on Powell’s J-Hole comments today to gauge the timing and rate of recent “taper-talk”. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4482, initially targets 4492 – 4495 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4482, initially targets 4470 – 4465 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4482 PVA Low Edge = 4466 Prior POC = 4468
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4510; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4448; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4483; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4500; 10 Day Average True Range 36; VIX: 18
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal CD1 unfolded as price declined to projected targets. Overnight activity has price rallying back to 3 Day Central Pivot (15323). Prior range was 113 handles on 561k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 15355 PVA Low Edge = 15295 Prior POC = 15342
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15323, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15342 – 15355 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15323, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15307 – 15295 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15428; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15173; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15340; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15340; 10 Day Average True Range: 164; VIX: 18
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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