S&P 500 (ES)
****NEW**** PTG Trading Room Recordings
We are now recording the PTG Trading Room Morning Session. These will be “raw” unedited and possibly lengthy. While watching, adjusting the playback speed is recommended. You will be able to find the most recent five (5) session recordings here: Polaris Trading Group Live Stream Videos
Note: Trading Room RECAP archives link: PTG-RECAP
📊 PTG Cycle Day 3: JUMPING THE CREEK
🚀 Positive Three-Day Cycle: 92.98% Historical Performance Rate
Today’s theme comes straight from the Wyckoff playbook:
“JUMPING THE CREEK”
NVDA earnings delivered the catalyst. The indexes responded by pushing through overhead resistance, and now the auction faces the question that actually matters:
Can price stay on the other side of the Creek?
Because jumping it is one thing.
Holding the landing is another.
And Wall Street has buried plenty of enthusiastic breakout traders who confused the two.
📈 Cycle Day 3: Respect the Odds
Our Positive Three-Day Cycle currently carries a:
🚀 92.98% Historical Performance Rate
Notice we said probability…
Not prophecy.
PTG doesn’t trade certainty.
We trade statistical edges.
With price securely above the Cycle Day 1 Low at 7660.25, the bulls enter Cycle Day 3 firmly in possession of the auction.
But at 92.98%, the statistic isn’t an invitation to blindly smash the BUY button.
It simply tells us which team has been controlling the football.
Price still has to execute the play.
🌊 THE CREEK: 7720 ±5
This is today’s primary decision zone.
Think of 7720 ±5 as the far bank of the Creek.
Acceptance above it says the breakout is being accepted, inventory is comfortable at higher prices, and institutions remain willing to conduct business above prior value.
Failure back below it?
Well…
Sometimes the bull jumps the Creek.
Sometimes the Creek wins.
🟢 BULL SCRIPT — HOLD THE LANDING
Acceptance Above 7720 ±5
If buyers defend the Creek and establish value above 7720, the auction remains structurally bullish.
🎯 Initial Objectives
7730
7740
7750
The roadmap is straightforward:
Jump → Hold → Build → Expand
Expect:
- Orderly upside auction
- Higher-value development
- Healthy participation
- Pullbacks attracting responsive buyers
- Trend continuation
- Bears discovering that NVDA apparently forgot to read their technical analysis
The preferred opportunity is not chasing vertical extension.
It’s allowing price to prove acceptance and then participating on quality pullbacks into support.
Clear it. Convert it. Defend it.
That is how resistance becomes support.
And that’s how a legitimate Jump Across the Creek behaves.
🔴 BEAR SCRIPT — BACK INTO THE WATER
Acceptance Below 7720 ±5
Lose the Creek and the character of the auction changes.
Instead of expansion…
Expect repair.
Instead of momentum…
Expect rotation.
🎯 Initial Objectives
7710
7700
7690 — Prior POC
A sustained failure below 7720 would suggest the market needs to repair some of the enthusiasm created by the post-NVDA expansion.
That does not automatically make the larger structure bearish.
It means price jumped ahead of value…
…and value may demand a reunion.
Expect:
- Two-way trade
- Inventory correction
- Rotation through prior structure
- POC repair
- Balance development
- Opportunistic buyers patiently waiting below
And remember:
A failed breakout can travel faster downhill than it did uphill.
Late breakout buyers have an uncanny ability to become highly motivated sellers.
📊 PTG REFERENCE BOARD
| Reference | Level |
|---|---|
| 🌊 The Creek / Decision Pivot | 7720 ±5 |
| 🎯 Bull Target 1 | 7730 |
| 🎯 Bull Target 2 | 7740 |
| 🎯 Bull Target 3 | 7750 |
| PVA High Edge | 7701 |
| PVA Low Edge | 7685 |
| Prior POC | 7690 |
| 🔑 Cycle Day 1 Low | 7660.25 |
| 🚀 Positive 3-Day Cycle | 92.98% |
🧭 TACTICAL TAKEAWAY
The NVDA catalyst may have supplied the fuel.
The Cycle Statistic may provide the historical edge.
And Wyckoff may tell us we’re Jumping the Creek.
But none of those things supersede PRICE.
Above 7720 ±5
Bull control → defend the Creek → target 7730 / 7740 / 7750.
Below 7720 ±5
Breakout failure → repair the auction → target 7710 / 7700 / 7690.
Simple.
No crystal balls.
No heroic predictions.
No chasing a market because somebody on financial television just discovered artificial intelligence.
🎯 PTG BOTTOM LINE
The bulls have jumped the Creek.
Now we find out whether they can hold the opposite bank.
The 92.98% Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic says respect the dominant force.
The 7720 ±5 pivot tells us whether that force remains in control.
And price tells us when we’re wrong.
Take only Triple-A Setups.
Manage your $RISK before counting your profits.
Hard Stop-Loss Orders belong on the exchange — not floating around in your imagination.
Remember:
Statistics provide the edge.
Price provides the confirmation.
Risk management keeps you in the game.
Stay aligned with the Dominant Force.
Everyone else?
They’re just providing liquidity on the other side of the Creek. 🌊🐂
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ES
Nasdaq (NQ)
🔥 Cycle Day 3
“As goes the Nasdaq…so goes the market.”
Right now, that’s more than an old trading cliché—it’s the market’s operating manual.
Today isn’t about predicting the next move.
It’s about recognizing structure.
Strip away the noise and focus on the only question that matters:
🧭 TACTICAL TAKEAWAY
The NVDA catalyst may have supplied the fuel.
The Cycle Statistic may provide the historical edge.
And Wyckoff may tell us we’re Jumping the Creek.
But none of those things supersede PRICE.
🎯 Acceptance…or Rejection?
Are buyers accepting prices?
Or are they being rejected the moment they try?
That’s the tell.
Markets don’t move because someone has an opinion.
They move because participants commit capital.
And Cycle Day 3 has a funny way of exposing who’s committed—and who’s just talking.
🚫 Tourists chase headlines.
✅ Participants move price.
Watch where value develops.
Watch how price behaves at the edges.
And most importantly…
Watch who actually shows up.
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Need to Regain Control
Acceptance above 29500 ±10 keeps buyers firmly in control and favors continuation toward higher prices.
If structure remains intact, expect rotation toward the first upside objectives:
🎯 Initial Upside Targets
• 29600
• 29650
• 29675
Acceptance beyond these levels opens the door for:
- Range Expansion
- Higher Value Development
- Momentum Acceleration
Remember…
No defense = No trend.
Higher prices aren’t given.
They’re earned…and defended.
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation & Inventory Reset
Acceptance below 29500 ±10 shifts the advantage back to sellers and signals an inventory correction.
Failure to defend structure invites rotation back into prior value.
🎯 Initial Downside Targets
• 29450
• 29400
• 29350
If sellers gain traction, expect responsive buyers to test conviction from below.
This is where the auction decides…
Not where opinions win.
📊 Key Structural Reference Levels
These aren’t forecasts.
They’re magnets.
- PVA High Edge: 29314
- PVA Low Edge: 29205
- Prior POC: 29285
- Cycle Day 1 Low: 29017
These are the areas where the auction naturally slows, rotates, negotiates—and ultimately decides.
Trade the structure.
Respect the auction.
Let the market reveal its hand before you play yours.
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
NQ
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN