Markets (Top Stories)
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets failed to secure a positive 3-day cycle, as we knew given the recent change in sentiment and selling, that is was a tall-order to reclaim CD1 Low (4591). Prior range was 41 handles on 1.699M contracts exchanged.
Note: *****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for a “normal” CD1 measures 4512 which was fulfilled during prior session. So for today’s RTH, it would be of no surprise that this level gets tested for surety, before the next rally begins. Being a mid-summer Friday, trading tends to thin-out as the day progresses, so we’ll be looking for directional influence during the morning session. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4525, initially targets 4550 – 4555 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4525, initially targets 4505 – 4500 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4531 PVA Low Edge = 4514 Prior POC = 4525
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4565; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4490; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4560; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4582; 10 Day Average True Range 43; VIX: 16
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets failed to secure a positive 3-day cycle, as we knew given the recent change in sentiment and selling, that is was a tall-order to reclaim CD1 Low (15728). Prior range was 212 handles on 651k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for a “normal” CD1 measures 15442 which was fulfilled during prior session. So for today’s RTH, it would be of no surprise that this level gets tested for surety, before the next rally begins. Being a mid-summer Friday, trading tends to thin-out as the day progresses, so we’ll be looking for directional influence during the morning session. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15455, initially targets 15525 – 15550 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15455, initially targets 15360 – 15340 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15480 PVA Low Edge = 15390 Prior POC = 15454
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15669; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15259; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15602; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15733; 10 Day Average True Range: 238; VIX: 16
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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