Trade Strategy 8.5.22

Markets

Jobs day

Investors and the Federal Reserve will get another glimpse into how strong the labor market is this morning when the Department of Labor releases its “employment situation” report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to expand by 250K jobs in July, lower than the 372K seen in the previous month, and bringing down the rolling three-month average to 333K (from 375K in June). The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.6%, near its all-time low.

Economic Calendar

8:30 Non-farm payrolls
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price did produce a decline for this cycle day, with low being established at 4136. Prior range was 37.25 handles which is approximately 50% of 3-day average on 1.190M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Prior session’s range was 50% of the 3 day average daily range as price consolidated, producing an inside value day. Normal for today’s CD2 is for continuation of the current theme with initial range boundaries 4170 – 4135. Will mark Line-in-the-Sand @ 4150. Summer volumes and range appear to be contracting with August being a big vacation month for traders and portfolio managers. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4150, initially targets 4168 – 4170 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4150, initially targets 4135 – 4130 zone. 

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 4158      PVA Low Edge = 4147        Prior POC = 4153

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4217; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4094; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4132; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4174; 10 Day Average True Range; 71; VIX: 21

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for CD2 is for two-way balancing action with an initial projected range to be between 13250 – 13410 zone. We’ll mark 13290 as today’s LIS. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13290, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12355 – 12375 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13290, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12830– 12810 zone.

PVA High Edge = 13328       PVA Low Edge = 13255     Prior POC = 13292

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 13628; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13047; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13125; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13612; 10 Day Average True Range: 337; VIX: 21

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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