Markets (Top Stories)
The U.S. economy is expected to add fewer jobs in August vs. July, but still stay in the sweet spot seen for a soft landing. Economists are expecting to see a print of 170K at 8:30 AM ET, down slightly from the 187K climb the prior month, with the unemployment rate staying near 50-year lows at 3.5%. The labor force participation rate, or the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work, is also expected to be unchanged at 62.6%, with average hourly earnings growth forecast to stay at 4.4% Y/Y.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal Cycle Day 2 as price oscillated within zone parameters (4515 – 4540) outlined in prior DTS 8/31/23. Prior range was 28 handles on 1.333M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Cycle targets are still open as markets await the all-important Jobs Report (see above). Upside target zone remains (4550 – 4555) with support now marked (4515 – 4510). Finally, today’s session is expected to be relatively light volumes as the long Labor Day Holiday will drive traders away from their trading desks. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4525, initially targets 4550 – 4555 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4525, initially targets 4515 – 4510 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4536 PVA Low Edge = 4522 Prior POC = 4530
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4570; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4478; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4508; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4548; 10 Day Average True Range 56; VIX: 15
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal Cycle Day 2 as price oscillated throughout the session creating a “balancing day.” Prior range was 146 handles on 579k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Cycle targets are still open as markets await the all-important Jobs Report (see above). Upside target zone remains (15668 – 15772) with support now marked (15480 – 15460). Finally, today’s session is expected to be relatively light volumes as the long Labor Day Holiday will drive traders away from their trading desks. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15565, initially targets 15695 – 15705 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15565, initially targets 15463 – 15434 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15582 PVA Low Edge = 15520 Prior POC = 15565
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15359; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14856; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15004; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15030; 10 Day Average True Range: 290; VIX: 15
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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