Markets
U.S. stock futures are continuing their march higher, now ahead by 0.5%, on the back of broad market gains and solid economic data. August retail sales data will be released at 8:30 a.m., while investors will eye the Fed’s latest policy meeting this afternoon.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Get ready for another Fed-filled session following the recent symposium in Jackson Hole and the first meeting since Chairman Jerome Powell announced a greater tolerance for inflation. While the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold, the “dot plot” is likely to show interest rates will stay close to zero through the end of 2023. The Fed may also note an improved economy, but not celebrate it, and markets are hoping for a more accommodative stance. Bigger questions will touch on the scale and composition of its bond buying, and the Fed’s long-term plan with its $7T balance sheet
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
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S&P 500
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to Mr. TopStep’s “The Opening Print”
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price continued this cycle’s rally up to projected target at 3408 outlined in prior DTS Briefing 09.15.20, which stated bullish scenario: “1.) Price sustains a bid above 3390, initially targeting 3400 – 3408 zone.” Range was 42.75 on 1.285M contracts exchanged.
Note: Contract Rollover is more than 50% rolled into front month December.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price has fulfilled the 3 Day Cycle Rally Objective of 3408 in the prior session, at which time the current decline / pullback began. Larger degree swing is bullish, so as such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3390, initially targeting 3400 – 3410 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3390, initially targeting 3380 – 3370 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3408 PVA Low Edge = 3395 Prior POC = 3404
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2020 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3448; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3318; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3362; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3408; 10 Day Average True Range 81.50; VIX: 25
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Positive 3 Day Cycle statistic has been fulfilled. Prior range 248.75 with 438k contracts exchanged. There are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading:
PVA High Edge = 11404 PVA Low Edge = 11488 Prior POC = 11458
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11482, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11515 – 11550 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11482, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11460 – 11440 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2020 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11638; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10994; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11244; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11432; 10 Day Average True Range: 406; VIX: 25
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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