Trade Strategy 9.16.20

Markets

U.S. stock futures are continuing their march higher, now ahead by 0.5%, on the back of broad market gains and solid economic data. August retail sales data will be released at 8:30 a.m., while investors will eye the Fed’s latest policy meeting this afternoon.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

No rate hikes until 2024?

Get ready for another Fed-filled session following the recent symposium in Jackson Hole and the first meeting since Chairman Jerome Powell announced a greater tolerance for inflation. While the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold, the “dot plot” is likely to show interest rates will stay close to zero through the end of 2023. The Fed may also note an improved economy, but not celebrate it, and markets are hoping for a more accommodative stance. Bigger questions will touch on the scale and composition of its bond buying, and the Fed’s long-term plan with its $7T balance sheet

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to Mr. TopStep’s “The Opening Print”

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price continued this cycle’s rally up to projected target at 3408 outlined in prior DTS Briefing 09.15.20, which stated bullish scenario: “1.) Price sustains a bid above 3390, initially targeting 3400 – 3408 zone.”  Range was 42.75 on 1.285M contracts exchanged.

Note: Contract Rollover is more than 50% rolled into front month December.

Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price has fulfilled the 3 Day Cycle Rally Objective of 3408 in the prior session, at which time the current decline / pullback began. Larger degree swing is bullish, so as such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 3390, initially targeting 3400 – 3410 zone.

2.) Price sustains an offer below 3390, initially targeting 3380 – 3370 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 3408       PVA Low Edge = 3395         Prior POC = 3404

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2020 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3448; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3318; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3362; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3408; 10 Day Average True Range  81.50; VIX: 25

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Positive 3 Day Cycle statistic has been fulfilled. Prior range 248.75 with 438k contracts exchanged. There are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading:

PVA High Edge = 11404       PVA Low Edge = 11488      Prior POC = 11458

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11482, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11515 – 11550 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11482, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11460 – 11440 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2020 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 11638; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10994; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11244; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11432; 10 Day Average True Range: 406; VIX: 25

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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