S&P 500
Trading Plan for Cycle Day 2 (Pre-FOMC Statement)
Market Context:
- Previous Day: Price action followed “Level-to-Level” trading, with key range boundaries tested and respected per DTS Briefing 9.16.24
- Cycle Low: Established at 5669.50—this level is crucial as a benchmark for future rallies.
- Contract Rollover: Expect reduced volatility and volume concentration, with traders potentially staying cautious ahead of the FOMC Statement.
Key Levels:
- Support Zone:
- 5669.50 (Cycle Low)
- 5675 (Lower target in Bear scenario)
- Resistance Zone:
- 5707 – 5712 (Bull Scenario target)
- Key Pivot:
- 5690 (Line in the sand for today’s direction)
Based on the price action during Cycle Day 1, the key levels have been established for today’s trading session.
Cycle Day 2 Expectations:
- New Cycle Low: Established at 5669.50, this becomes the benchmark for future rallies.
- Contract Rollover Activity: Anticipation of more rollovers as traders await the FOMC Statement on Wednesday, which could keep volatility somewhat muted.
Key Scenarios for Today:
Bull Scenario:
-
- Price needs to hold above 5690.
- Immediate targets are in the 5707 – 5712 zone.
Bear Scenario:
-
- Price falls and sustains below 5690.
- First targets are 5680 – 5675.
Given the broader context, it’s essential to remain cautious and let the market confirm either scenario before taking a position. The FOMC meeting can be a significant driver for market shifts, so today’s action could serve as a precursor for more volatility midweek.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
PVA High Edge = 5703 PVA Low Edge = 5683 Prior POC = 5696
ES Chart (Profile)
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Contract Rollover kept a lid on volatility as volumes were split between Sept. & Dec. contracts. Price explored “Level-to-Level” (19536 – 19753) POC range edges. Range was 255 handles on 266k (Z) contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Price established a new Cycle Low at 19529, which will be used as the benchmark for the next rally. For today’s session, expectation will be for more contract-roll action as traders are in a “holding-pattern” in advance of the FOMC Statement and Presser on Wednesday.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 19660, initially targets 19754 – 19785 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 19660, initially targets 19590 – 19550 zone.
PVA High Edge = 19690 PVA Low Edge = 19590 Prior POC = 19664
NQ Chart (Profile)
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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