The U.S. economy has been giving off mixed signals this year, with GDP falling for two straight quarters, while demand for workers outstrips supply. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly called the labor market unusually strong in recent months, while his comments at Jackson Hole last Friday sent markets into a tailspin. Today’s non-farm payrolls numbers – set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET – will be the next data point the central bank will be looking for when deciding monetary policy in September, meaning investors will be on edge for most of today’s session before heading into the holiday weekend.
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
10:00 Factory Orders
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets traded aggressively down to 3900 zone where buy response squelched further decline. This was an amazing trading session and the PTG Trade Chat posted all the action, preparing our traders for potential scenarios. Follow along below:
:(11:10:54 AM) : Everyone “know” what the IV downside target is for today?
:(11:11:15 AM) : >>>> 3909<<<<
:(11:37:05 AM) : PTGDavid :(11:07:32 AM) : Should a Reversal unfold…It will be EPIC!
:(12:47:37 PM) : Odds Favoring a “Failed” 3 Day Cycle…though always an outside chance of recovering CD1 Low
***Note: Reversal rally began to unfold…we posted the following:
:(3:08:24 PM) : ****ALERT High Probable Odds for a CD1 Low RECOVERY!
:(3:30:47 PM) : Price has more work to do to get the CD1 Recovery it appears…but possible
:(3:53:27 PM) : Come On!!! 3964.50 OR BUST!
:(3:58:35 PM) : BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMM!
:(3:59:07 PM) : @ES CD1 Low RECOVERED!!! Averting a 2nd failed 3 Day Cycle
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
Prior Range was.67 handles on 2.147M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3989. Markets are quiet as traders await the release of the all-important Jobs Report. We could have another volatile session ahead of the long holiday weekend. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3965, initially targets 3995 – 4000 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3965, initially targets 3952 – 3948 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3936 PVA Low Edge = 3906 Prior POC = 3927
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4033; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3896; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3977; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4001; 10 Day Average True Range 78; VIX: 25
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Today is CD1 with Average Decline measuring 11974. Markets are awaiting the Non-Farm Payroll release for read-through impact for magnitude of the next interest-rate increase. Expectation is for continued volatility ahead of the long holiday weekend. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12280, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12375 – 12390 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12280, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12250 – 12240 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12220 PVA Low Edge = 12078 Prior POC = 12158
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12553; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12008; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12330; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12410; 10 Day Average True Range: 313; VIX: 25
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN