Trade Strategy 9.21.17

Markets
 
The FOMC held the Fed Funds rate steady but still expects to hike one more time between now and year-end. The central bank will also begin to trim back its balance sheet next month with a $10B reduction. Longer term is a somewhat more dovish message, with the “dots” showing a 20 basis point cut in the expected final resting place of the Fed Funds rate.
 
In Asia, Japan +0.18%. Hong Kong -0.06%. China -0.24%. India flat. 
In Europe, at midday, London +0.07%. Paris +0.56%. Frankfurt +0.23%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.06%. S&P -0.08%. Nasdaq -0.11%. Crude -0.55%to $50.41. Gold -1.26% to $1,299.80. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -7bps to 2.269%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Economic Calendar 

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

PTG Trading

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price failed to expand higher and subsequently pushed lower testing 2494 key support following Fed release before rebounding settling neutral.

Average decline on CD1 measure 2491.25, which is within key support zone (2492 – 94). Violation of this zone opens door to deeper downside targeting 2490…2484.

STAY NIMBLE and ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOPS.

Range Projections and Key Levels

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2511.63; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2496.13; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2497.75; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2502.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2517.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 10.13; VIX: 9.65

**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: December 2017 (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1:  Bulls must convert 2406 to upper support to increase odds of expansion higher, targeting 2512…2517.

Scenario 2:  Bears must convert 2500 to lower resistance at minimum in order to push to retest 2494 “fed-low”. 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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