Trade Strategy 9.22.21

Markets

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

 
The Federal Reserve takes center stage, but the decision could well be a dud for a market that’s been hyping up big macro events lately.  While nobody expects a rate hike when the statement arrives, there’s plenty for the FOMC to try and finesse in its statement and for Powell to address at his Q&A.
 

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

S&P 500

***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price rebound approximately three-fourths of previous failed cycle, fulfilling this cycle’s objective (4385).  Range was 66.50 handles on 1.909M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for consolidation and stabilization of recent wide range given the elevated volatility. Well defined 5-day value zone between 4393 – 4305 with key point of control marked at 4348.50  As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4350, initially targets 4375 – 4395 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4350, initially targets 4325 – 4300 zone.

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)

PVA High Edge = 4373       PVA Low Edge = 4347         Prior POC = 4353

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4401; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4318; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4380; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4367; 10 Day Average True Range  54; VIX: 22

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Stabilization trade activity is anticipated for CD2 with prior midpoint (14980) being the fulcrum for direction. Prior range was 200 handles on 656k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 15094       PVA Low Edge = 15016      Prior POC = 15036

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14980, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15050 – 15090 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14980, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14930 – 14870 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15148; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14880; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15154; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15126; 10 Day Average True Range: 218; VIX: 22

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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