As expected from its decision yesterday, members pulled forward rate-hike expectations on the dot plot. And Fed chief Jay Powell telegraphed a tapering announcement at the next meeting in November. Tapering is expected to end around mid-2022 and liftoff could occur after that, although 2023 still seems the most likely timing for the start of rate hikes for now.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Wide range consolidation unfolded as the FED Presser gyrated prices back and forth before settling mid-range. Range was 85.25 handles on 1.710M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): This session begins with price trading near PH (4406.50) during pre-RTH activity. Cycle Statistic has been fulfilled, averting subsequent failed cycles.. We’ll mark today as a “:wild-card”, since volatility remains elevated as traders/investors assess the future impact of FED Policy actions. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4406, initially targets 4418 – 4427 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4406, initially targets 4380 – 4370 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4400 PVA Low Edge = 4378 Prior POC = 4383
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has pushed above PH (15227) to 15291 upper Penetration Zone during overnight activity. Prior range was 296 handles on 595k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 15206 PVA Low Edge = 15086 Prior POC = 15168
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15227, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15291 – 15323 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15227, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15175 – 15150 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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