Trade Strategy 9.23.21

Markets

As expected from its decision yesterday, members pulled forward rate-hike expectations on the dot plot. And Fed chief Jay Powell telegraphed a tapering announcement at the next meeting in November. Tapering is expected to end around mid-2022 and liftoff could occur after that, although 2023 still seems the most likely timing for the start of rate hikes for now.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Wide range consolidation unfolded as the FED Presser gyrated prices back and forth before settling mid-range. Range was 85.25 handles on 1.710M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): This session begins with price trading near PH (4406.50) during pre-RTH activity. Cycle Statistic has been fulfilled, averting subsequent failed cycles.. We’ll mark today as a “:wild-card”, since volatility remains elevated as traders/investors assess the future impact of FED Policy actions. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4406, initially targets 4418 – 4427 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4406, initially targets 4380 – 4370 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 4400       PVA Low Edge = 4378         Prior POC = 4383

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4451; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4367; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4358; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4375; 10 Day Average True Range  58; VIX: 19.70

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has pushed above PH (15227) to 15291 upper Penetration Zone during overnight activity. Prior range was 296 handles on 595k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 15206       PVA Low Edge = 15086      Prior POC = 15168

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15227, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15291 – 15323 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15227, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15175 – 15150 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15400; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15085; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15065; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15160; 10 Day Average True Range: 225; VIX: 19.70

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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