Markets
Market volatility is not going away as Wall Street experienced more whiplash on Wednesday, with stocks closing broadly lower and futures pointing lower overnight.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:50 Fed’s Kaplan Speech
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Powell Testifies Before the Senate Banking Committee
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
12:00 PM Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
1:00 PM Results of $50B, 7-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Fed’s Evans: Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
1:00 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
2:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
2:00 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
2:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Labor Department is expected to say the number of jobless claims declined to 840K last week – down 20K from the previous week’s tally – and the lowest reading since March 14
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Early rally that reached CD2 Penetration Level reversed direction, as price cascaded lower with increased volume and range. Market on Close Sell Imbalance of $2 billion capped the session.Range was 98.75 handles on 1.839M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently below CD1 Low (3256.50) threatening a failed 3 Day Cycle. Recovery back above this level during the RTH Session is required to negate a failed cycle. As such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3225, initially targeting 3250 – 3255 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3225, initially targeting 3210 – 3180 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3320 PVA Low Edge = 3248 Prior POC = 3296
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2020 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3277; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3173; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3273; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3325; 10 Day Average True Range 67; VIX: 29
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently below CD1 Low (10897.50) with potential for a failed 3 Day Cycle if not able to recover back above during RTH Session. As such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading:
PVA High Edge = 11220 PVA Low Edge = 10936 Prior POC = 11085
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 10800, THEN initial upside estimate targets 10850 – 10900 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 10800, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10750 – 10700 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2020 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11039; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10522; 3 Day Central Pivot: 10968; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11240; 10 Day Average True Range: 324; VIX: 29
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN