Trade Strategy 9.26.18

Markets
 
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to lift the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 2.25% when the central bank finishes its two-day meeting today. The central bank is looking to guide the U.S. economy in for a soft landing, with an eye on the gap between the inflation rate and the fed funds rate. The so-called “neutral” federal funds rate (tossed around as R* by some economists) is either quite low or somewhat elevated by historical standards, depending upon which Fed governor you ask. Updated dot plot rate forecasts will be released after the meeting to give interest rate watchers plenty to chew on. Heading into the meeting, the 2-year Treasury is showing a 2.83% yield and the 10-year is at 3.08%.
 
In Asia, Japan +0.39%. Hong Kong +1.73%. China +0.92%. India -0.03%
In Europe, at midday, London +0.04%. Paris +0.23%. Frankfurt -0.12%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.17%. S&P +0.19%. Nasdaq +0.34%. Crude -0.26% to $72.09. Gold -0.18% to $1,202.90. Bitcoin +0.30% to $6,453. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1.3bps to 3.089%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM FOMC Forecast
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2911.50. Average Range for CD1 is 22.75 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2944.75        CD1 Range Low = 2906.00         CD1 Range Avg = 22.75 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2925, THEN upside targets 2928 – 2933 zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2925, THEN downside targets 2921 – 2918 zone. Average CD1 Decline measures 2911.50.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2938.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2912.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2929.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2952.00; 10 Day Average True Range 16.50; VIX: 12.00

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7506.50. Average Range for CD1 is 93.50 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 7690.00          CD1 Range Low = 7535.50          CD1 Range Avg = 93.50

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7585, THEN upside targets 7610.50 – 7622.00 CD1 Penetration Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7585, THEN downside targets 7575.25 – 7567.75  zone, followed by 7545.50. Average CD1 Decline measures 7506.50.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7680.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7544.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7571.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7659.75; 10 Day Average True Range: 84.25; VIX: 12.00

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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